Power access is shaping data center value
Through Q3 2026, the key issue has been the power queue, not vacancy. Hyperscale leasing velocity remains strong in Northern Virginia, Phoenix, and Atlanta, but transmission and substation timelines increasingly govern delivery—not the shell.
CBRE and JLL’s summer updates say contracted megawatts with a credible energization path are leasing faster and at tighter cap spreads than entitled land without power.
Pricing follows the power schedule
Portfolios that can show leased MW, quarterly ramp, and utility milestones are commanding premium valuations over land-and-entitlement plays. For a 30–40 MW campus, the spread between a 30/kW/mo and 50/kW/mo underwrite is not a rounding error—it is $7–9M of annual revenue at stabilization. Buyers are underwriting rent based on power, not PSF, and discounting models that assume rent grows flatly with square feet.
What to watch in September
Interconnection letters and firm energization dates are moving from the appendix to the front of the data room. Investors presenting a power-aware rent roll—tenant, contracted kW, rate, ramp, and TCV by month—are reaching IC faster than those reconciling a generic rent schedule. The signal: tying lease cash flows to energized capacity by phase can help price risk more tightly.
For operators who are also investors, track energized and contracted MW alongside leased SF, and set opex to reflect occupancy and tenant mix. For PE and infrastructure funds, test power price and ramp—not just exit cap. September is rewarding power-ready, not power-promised.